Pereira Vs. Potieria Betting Odds, Breakdown, Prediction

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight finishers Michel Pereira and Ihor Potieria will throw down this weekend (Sat., May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301.

Pereira enters this bout having won seven in a row. A bit of the luster of that accomplishment is diminished by struggling to make weight and getting forced up a division, but his results at 185 pounds have been tremendous. Two wins in a combined 127 seconds — why hasn’t the Brazilian been a Middleweight this whole time?!? Meanwhile, Potieria is stepping up on short-notice for the injured Makhmud Muradov. The former Light Heavyweight is undefeated (1-0) at 185 pounds himself, having leveled up in a strong showing against hyped Polish prospect, Robert Bryczek, in his last appearance.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Michel Pereira Vs. Ihor Potieria Betting Odds

• Michel Pereira victory: -600
• Michel Pereira via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Michel Pereira via submission: TBD
• Michel Pereira via decision: TBD
• Ihor Potieria victory: +365
• Ihor Potieria via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Ihor Potieria via submission: TBD
• Ihor Potieria via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Pereira Wins

Even up 15 pounds, Pereira is a serious physical force. The rangy kickboxer has big power in both his hands and feet, and he’s proven a more opportunistic submission fighter than most expected.

In his last showing, Potieria impressed with his head movement and combination punching. He’s got a bit of funk to his movement, but generally, the Ukrainian talent was able to stay in the pocket and fire back without getting hit too cleanly. Since Pereira isn’t a huge fan of extended exchanges, that could be an issue.

Fortunately, Pereira has a solution: kicks! His front kick up the middle is brutal, and it could serve as a great tool to interrupt Potieria’s stance and ability to fire back. In Pereira’s last bout, he ripped apart Michal Oleksiejczuk with gnarly body punches, which could also be a great tactic against an opponent relying on head movement.

In general, Pereira should be using his footwork to pick and choose when to exchange. He doesn’t want to get in a pure volume game opposite Potieira, but a bit of movement goes a long way in getting Potieira to walk into his counters instead of trading fairly.

How Potieria Wins

Potieria is a bit of a wild man, but perhaps Middleweight is the right home for him. He looked sharp last time out, and without a size/power disadvantage against him, Potieria was able to extend combinations and land good shots as a result.

The 27-year-old “Duelist” has finished 16 wins via stoppage.

Last time out, Potieria looked better than ever, but I expect another level up is necessary to upset Pereira. The combination punching and countering at distance were good tools, but he’s going to have to mix serious pressure into his attack to get to the rangy Brazilian. Pereira’s distance advantage is simply major.

On the bright side, Potieria does indeed have that dog in him. He’s a gamer, willing to walk through punches and kicks as necessary. Whether he’s durable enough to take Pereira’s best shots remains to be seen, but if he’s to have a chance at victory, he has to walk the kicker down and throw punches-in-bunches.

Extending the fight could also be helpful. We’ve never seen Pereira past the opening minute at Middleweight, and he gassed before at 170 pounds. If Potieria survives into the second and keeps pushing the pace, there’s always a chance Pereira’s gas tank fails him.

Pereira Vs. Potieria Prediction

For the second time in two fights, it’s hard to go against the overwhelming favorite.

Pereira is a wildcard, but it’s been a long time since he gassed and gave away a winnable fight. He’s beat up good competition consistently, and I’m not sure Potieria has even proven himself as good (at the UFC level) yet. It’s a step back because of an injured opponent, even if Potieria might have some Middleweight potential.

Plain and simple, it’s probably going to be a striking match, and Pereira just smoked a striker in Oleksiejczuk that I expect would run through Potieira. In addition, Pereira is the better kickboxer with a lot more polish to his overall game, and he’s also the one entering on a full camp.

Results are never guaranteed, but predicting fights isn’t always rocket science.

Prediction: Michel Pereira victory (-600)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.