Predictions! UFC 238 Fight Pass ‘Prelims’ Preview
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is bringing a bevy of “Prelims” fights to both UFC Fight Pass and ESPN this weekend (Sat., June 8, 2019) when UFC 238: “Cejudo vs. Moraes” storms United Center in Chicago, Illinois. MMAmania.com’s Patrick Stumberg kicks off the UFC 238 “Prelims” party with the first installment of a two-part undercard preview series below.
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) hits United Center in Chicago, Ill., this Saturday (June 8, 2019) with the truly stacked UFC 238, featuring a title doubleheader and one of the best possible match ups at Lightweight.
In the pay-per-view (PPV) main event, Flyweight king Henry Cejudo dukes it out with Marlon Moraes for the vacant Bantamweight strap, while Valentina Shevchenko makes the first defense of her Flyweight title against Jessica Eye. Earlier in the evening, Tony Ferguson returns to action against the resurgent “Cowboy” Cerrone and Jimmie Rivera looks to halt the rise of Bantamweight super-prospect Petr Yan.
UFC 238 features eight “Prelims” undercard bouts this time, four apiece on Fight Pass and ESPN. Here’s what your $9.99/month will get you:
115 lbs.: Xiaonan Yan vs. Angela Hill
Like countrywoman Weili Zhang, Xiaonan Yan (10-1) has emerged as a contender at 115 pounds, starting her UFC career perfect (3-0). “Nine” last fought in Nov. 2018, out-striking former professional wrestler Syuri Kondo to win a decision in Beijing.
Four of her last five pre-UFC victories came via (technical) knockout stoppage in less than two rounds.
A successful Invicta title run earned Angela Hill (9-6) a second shot in UFC, which saw her go 2-4 in her first six fights. She got back on track in April, out-classing Jodie Esquibel on short notice to take a unanimous decision.
She steps in for Felice Herrig, who tore her ACL, on little more than one month’s notice.
Yan’s ceiling is lower than Zhang’s, but damn if she isn’t fun to watch. She’s big, aggressive, powerful and constantly pursuing the finish. This match up should be tons of fun, both women constantly on the attack.
Hill almost certainly has the technical edge, but Yan packs enough power to make this a toss-up. In addition, “Nine” lands more and absorbs fewer strikes than Hill per minute, though that could easily be chalked up to their relative strengths of schedule. Yan thrives in firefights and Hill will give her one, so expect Yan to keep her undefeated UFC record intact with enough telling punches to sway the judges.
Prediction: Yan via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Bevon Lewis vs. Darren Stewart
Bevon Lewis (6-1) punched his UFC ticket with two stoppage victories on the Contender Series, emerging as one of the show’s top prospects. He looked to have victory well in hand in his Octagon debut, only for Uriah Hall to uncork one of his customary miracles for the comeback knockout.
“The Extraordinary Gentleman” is three inches taller than Darren Stewart (9-4) and boasts a five-inch reach advantage.
“The Dentist” opened his Octagon career 0-3 (1 NC), a slump somewhat mitigated by his Fight of the Night war with Julian Marquez. A pair of comeback knockouts took his back off the wall, but a late surge wasn’t enough to carry him past Edmen Shahbazyan in Nov. 2018.
Seven of his nine victories have come via (technical) knockout, four in the first round.
As much as Stewart delights in foiling my prognoses, this looks like a very winnable bounce-back fight for Lewis. Stewart gave up eight takedowns to Shahbazyan, who looks to be a lesser wrestler than Lewis by a fair margin. Further, Stewart averages fewer than half of Lewis’ strikes landed per minute, and his power has not yet received the technique to properly deliver it.
Stewart’s always capable of turning a fight around in an instant and Lewis showed he wasn’t immune to that sort of thing against Hall. Most likely, though, Lewis uses patient striking and regular takedowns to win a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Lewis via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland vs. Grigory Popov
Eddie Wineland (23-13-1) rebounded from consecutive losses to Johnny Eduardo and Bryan Caraway with brutal knockouts of Frankie Saenz and Takeya Mizugaki, the former of which earned him “Performance of the Night.” He has since been out-pointed by John Dodson and narrowly edged by Alejandro Perez, though the vast majority of the mixed martial arts (MMA) media scored the latter fight in his favor.
Fourteen of his professional victories, including six of his last seven, have come by form of knockout.
Russia’s Grigory Popov (13-1) joined the venerable Tiger Muay Thai squad in 2014, a move that’s earned him nine consecutive victories. The streak includes a flying crane kick knockout and two separate gogoplata finishes. Five of his last six victories have come inside the distance.
Popov is … well, he wouldn’t be my first choice when scouring the Asian circuit for fresh talent. The 35-year-old is a potent Muay Thai striker, but his nonexistent takedown defense and terrible strength of schedule don’t have me thinking he’ll go far in the Octagon. Luckily for him, Wineland isn’t much for wrestling; unluckily for Popov, his habit of throwing naked low kicks leaves him open for Wineland’s power punches.
Popov could very well recreate Johnny Eduardo’s efforts, battering Wineland’s lead leg and countering upstairs, but he lacks the Brazilian’s defensive savvy. Without that, Wineland just hits too dang hard. Wineland puts him away with a heavy counter sometime in the second.
Prediction: Wineland via second-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Katlyn Chookagian vs. Joanne Calderwood
Katlyn Chookagian (11-2) dropped a split decision to Liz Carmouche in her second UFC appearance, but three consecutive wins put her on the verge of a Flyweight title shot. A revitalized Jessica Eye had other plans, edging Chookagian by split decision at UFC 231.
She is three inches taller than Joanne Calderwood (13-3) and will have nearly as much reach on her.
“Dr. Kneevil” made the move back up to 125 pounds after consecutive losses to Jessica Andrade and Cynthia Calvillo, celebrating her return to the weight with a triangle armbar finish of Kalindra Faria. She then met top prospect Ariane Lipski, utilizing her wrestling to defuse “The Violence Queen” and win an upset decision.
She has scored five professional wins via (technical) knockout, though just one since 2013.
I’ve been a Calderwood fan since before her run on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), so I won’t pretend to be purely objective, but I do think she takes this. She’s the more versatile striker and, unlike Chookagian, actually puts some heat behind her shots, which should make up for the disparity in sheer volume. In addition, Calderwood has her increasingly effective wrestling to open up her offensive options, preventing Chookagian from finding a rhythm.
There’s just not enough steam behind Chookagian’s shots to overwhelm Calderwood’s comfort in long-range engagements. “JoJo” lands the more powerful blows and sneaks in enough effective grappling to take the decision.
Prediction: Calderwood vie split decision
We’ve got four more UFC 238 “Prelims” undercard bouts to preview and predict tomorrow, including clashes between top-five opponents in two separate divisions. Same time as always, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 238 fight card this weekend, starting with the Fight Pass “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, then the remaining undercard balance on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 238: “Cejudo vs. Moraes” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
