UFC 308 predictions
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No matter what happens with Max Holloway and Robert Whittaker at UFC 308, these former champions are proof you can’t keep a good fighter down.
First, let’s talk about Holloway, the current “BMF” champion and former featherweight champion looking to regain the latter title when he takes on the undefeated Ilia Topuria in Saturday’s main event in Abu Dhabi. Holloway had a brilliant run as champion from 2017 to 2019 before running into rival Alexander Volkanovski, a fellow future Hall of Famer that just so happens to be his perfect foil. Holloway’s inability to get one over on Volkanovski seemed to signal the end of his run as 145’s top dog, but he just kept winning tough fights, putting on spectacular performances, and creating viral moments to the point that he forced his way back into the title conversation.
Now we’ll see if Holloway can cap off one of the most feel-good stories we’ve ever seen.
The stakes aren’t quite as high for Whittaker in the co-main event, but he faces a similar challenge as he takes on a gifted opponent who has never tasted defeat. Whittaker faced his own version of Volkanovski in the form of then-champion Israel Adesanya and future champion Dricus du Plessis, two opponents that relegated Whittaker to contender status. But like Holloway, he’s crawled his way back into spitting distance of a title, and an upset of Chimaev will have fans blowing up Dana White’s socials to give “The Reaper” his due.
Everyone should appreciate what Holloway and Whittaker are attempting to achieve here, because no one would have blamed them if they gave up on their championship dreams when they were at their lowest.
In other main card action, No. 1 light heavyweight contender looks to become, uh, even more the No. 1 contender (?) when he fights Aleksandar Rakic, Lerone Murphy meets Dan Ige in a bout with sneaky featherweight title implications, and the popular Shara Bullet opens the main card against Armen Petrosyan.
What: UFC 308
Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
When: Saturday, Oct. 26. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the five-fight main card at 2 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Ilia Topuria (1, P4P-4) vs. Max Holloway (3, P4P-T9)
Whether you’re rooting for Max Holloway or not, there’s plenty of reason to believe he can beat Ilia Topuria besides good vibes.
Yes, Topuria beat Alexander Volkanovski and Volkanovski beat Holloway three times, but put aside the MMA math and you’ll see this is a classic case of styles making fights. The “finish fast” mind set Topuria employed against Volkanovski won’t serve him as well against the titanium-chinned Holloway. If Topuria goes too hard in the opening rounds, he could find himself swimming upstream in the championship frames.
It’s on Holloway to make him work though. Holloway’s mixture of high volume and precision will give Topuria headaches, but Topuria’s technical skills are so sharp, he could catch Holloway with some of the same shots that felled Volkanovski. I don’t expect Holloway to go down and stay down, but could Topuria become just the second fighter to knock him down? I see it.
I’m looking past all of the weird side quests Topuria seems determined to talk about and trusting him to be at his best on fight night, because when he’s on, he’s legitimately one of the five best fighters in the world. Topuria can make a huge statement with a convincing win over Holloway and while I don’t expect him to dominate from bell-to-bell, he should come out with a controversy-free decision victory.
Pick: Topuria
Robert Whittaker (4) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (12)
Look, I can’t tell you for sure I didn’t write all those nice things about Robert Whittaker and Max Holloway to soften the blow of me picking against them both. But I’m picking against then both.
Dricus du Plessis wrote the blueprint for bullying Whittaker and as much as Whittaker learned from that loss, I don’t think he he has an answer for the sheer physicality of Khamzat Chimaev. I’ve never hopped off the Chimaev bandwagon, confident in my belief he can beat anyone as long as he makes it to the cage.
As I write this, there’s still plenty of time for Saturday’s co-main event to fall through, but assuming Chimaev makes the walk, I expect his unreal combination of strength, speed, wrestling ability, and raw power to be on full display. We’ll know early if Whittaker is poised to play the spoiler if he can stuff a few Chimaev takedowns and avoid early flurries on the feet. Don’t forget, this is a five-round fight, and if Whittaker takes it past Round 3, Chimaev’s chances of winning decrease exponentially with every passing minute.
So this is a leap of faith of sorts as I’m going with Chimaev to keep his act together and finish Whittaker in the first or second round.
Pick: Chimaev
Magomed Ankalaev (3) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (7)
This is just the ultimate banana peel for Magomed Ankalaev.
Unbeaten in 12 straight fights, Ankalaev is somehow at risk of potentially losing out on what should have been a surefire crack at the light heavyweight title to Aleksandar Rakic, despite Rakic coming off of two straight losses separated by a two-year injury layoff. MMA.
Rakic is a threat, too! He looked sharp in his comeback fight before getting Prochazka’d and if he sticks to the game plan of leg kicks and counter combos, it could be a serious problem for Ankalaev. When Ankalaev fought to a draw with Jan Blachowicz, much of his struggles came as a result of Blachowicz chipping away at his leg for the first three rounds. Then Ankalaev went to his wrestling to turn the fight on its head.
Should he consider focusing on his wrestling to stifle Rakic’s offense? It couldn’t hurt, though the rangy Rakic has shown good takedown defense when he’s had to use it. With only three rounds to work—and more importantly, to impress Dana White—Ankalaev might have to throw caution to the wind and stick to a standup duel.
That won’t be a problem for Ankalaev, a great striker that has strangely been labeled as an unappealing challenger for Pereira despite half of his UFC wins coming by way of knockout. He’ll mix the martial arts to break Rakic’s rhythm if it comes to it, but when it’s time to finish, Ankalaev will let loose with his limbs and take Rakic out.
Pick: Ankalaev
Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige (15)
After several years where he struggled to string together fights, Lerone Murphy is finally in the swing of things and now it’s just a matter of making that brutal climb up the featherweight ladder. Dan Ige is the next logical step, a veteran that has gone the distance with the best of them even if he’s fallen short of proving he’s a top-10 fighter himself.
Murphy showed off an incredible pressure game in his recent win over Edson Barboza, but don’t expect Ige to wilt against the same tactics. “50K” is always in great shape and a hard 15 minutes won’t trouble him in the slightest. I’m guessing we see Murphy mixing up his tactics more, stinging Ige on the feet when he finds an opening and taking him down if the standup exchanges get too hot.
Overall though, I like Murphy to edge out a close striking battle, doing just enough to beat Ige to the punch and prevent him from getting his own offense going. It won’t be easy, but Murphy’s undefeated streak continues.
Pick: Murphy
Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan
Don’t ask me why, I’m expecting so much weirdness in this matchup.
“Shara Bullet” should win this based on his finishing ability and unpredictable movement, but they haven’t given him a layup in Armen Petrosyan. The Russian-Armenian kickboxer specializes in drawn-out, methodical standup fights, which could lead to frustration for Magomedov (and those of us watching at home). Neither fighter has shown an inclination to push the pace, so look forward to long stretches of halfhearted flicks and feints as they work to goad the other man into a mistake.
That said, I can’t shake the thought that this fight will be filled with odd fouls, a restless crowd calling for more action, and maybe even a scoring controversy if we’re lucky. Magomedov brings a huge following with him whenever he steps into the octagon and there’s star potential there, but I remain unconvinced he can impose his will on a fight. Happy to be proven wrong.
Magomedov by decision?
Pick: Magomedov
Ibo Aslan def. Raffael Cerqueira
Rafael dos Anjos def. Geoff Neal (13)
Myktybek Orolbai def. Mateusz Rebecki
Brunno Ferreira def. Abus Magomedov
Chris Barnett def. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Farid Basharat def. Victor Hugo
